World Bank has projected that poverty in Nigeria will rise by three percentage points over the next five years, reaching 2027.

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This projection is part of the Africa Pulse report released during the ongoing IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC.

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The report paints a worrying picture of poverty in Nigeria. It explains that although there are some signs of economic improvement—especially in the non-oil sector—Nigeria’s heavy dependence on natural resources and fragile economy is likely to worsen poverty levels.

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The World Bank says this situation calls for strong governance reforms and inclusive economic policies to address the challenges ahead.

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According to the report, Nigeria experienced better-than-expected economic growth in the last quarter of 2024, mainly outside the oil sector. However, the country's status as a resource-rich but fragile state means it still faces major obstacles in reducing poverty.

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The World Bank noted that poverty in countries like Nigeria—those rich in resources but economically unstable—is expected to rise by 3.6 percentage points from 2022 to 2027. This group is the only one in Sub-Saharan Africa where poverty is expected to increase during this period.

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The report stated: “Sub-Saharan Africa has the highest extreme poverty rate globally, and a large share of the poor is concentrated in a few countries. About 80 percent of the world’s estimated 695 million extreme poor resided in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, compared to 8 percent in South Asia, 2% in East Asia and the Pacific, 5 percent in the Middle East and North Africa, and 3 percent in Latin America and the Caribbean.

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”Within Sub-Saharan Africa, half of the 560 million extreme poor in 2024 resided in four countries. Non-resource-rich countries are expected to continue reducing poverty faster than resource-rich countries.

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“Thanks to higher prices of agricultural commodities, non-resource-rich countries will see higher growth overall, despite fiscal pressures. Conversely, resource-rich countries are not expected to grow at the same rate given decelerating oil prices. As a result, resource-rich countries are expected to see less progress in terms of poverty reduction.

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”Importantly, poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries (which include large countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria) is expected to increase by 3.6 percentage points over 2022–27, being the only group in the region with increasing poverty rates.

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“This follows a well-established pattern: resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—an average poverty rate of 46% in 2024, 13 percentage points above non-fragile, resource-rich countries.

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“Meanwhile, non-resource-rich, non-fragile countries saw the biggest gains in poverty reduction since 2000 and fully closed the gap in poverty with other non-resource-rich countries by 2010.”

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Consequently, the report suggests that for resource-rich countries like Nigeria, improving fiscal management and developing a stronger fiscal contract with citizens is crucial.

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